Weekend Box Office Estimates - Fahrenheit Burns
1. Fahrenheit 9/11 - $21.8M
2. White Chicks - $19.6M
3. Dodgeball - $18.5
4. The Terminal - $13.9M
5. The Notebook - $13M
6. Harry Potter - $11.4M
7. Shrek 2 - $10.5M
8. Garfield - $7M
9. Two Brothers - $6.2M
10. The Stepford Wives - $5.2M
You gotta be nervous when an election is fastly approaching and the #1 movie in the country is a documentary (of all things!) completely bashing you. In a summer filled with surprises - mostly bad - this weekend saw the biggest of all: the first documentary ever to be at #1. Like The Passion of the Christ earlier this year, Michael Moore's acclaimed Palm D'Or winner took advantage of a niche audience, leading to long lines at the less than 900 theatres it played at. Now, everyone makes a big deal about per screen averages (9/11's was around $25K) but I'm here to once and for all debunk them: they really don't mean anything. If Fahrenheit 9/11 had debuted in more than 3500 theatres, the most it would have made would be $35M. Some people seem to have this notion that the PSA (per screen average) would be the same no matter what. No. For instance, in Lost In Translation's first week, it garnered about $40K PSA playing only in a few markets. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind debuted in about 1200 theatres, with just as good if not better reviews than Lost and just as much anticipation, but its PSA was circa $6K. People, PSA's don't mean that much. They just mean that the theatres that were playing it were busy. That is it. Good for them. Anywho, The Notebook debuted strongly and could hang around because of positive word of mouth. Two Brothers disappointed in 9th, while White Chicks scored with $26M in its 5-day, but should die fast in the coming weeks. Spider-Man 2 predictions will be up on Tuesday.
2. White Chicks - $19.6M
3. Dodgeball - $18.5
4. The Terminal - $13.9M
5. The Notebook - $13M
6. Harry Potter - $11.4M
7. Shrek 2 - $10.5M
8. Garfield - $7M
9. Two Brothers - $6.2M
10. The Stepford Wives - $5.2M
You gotta be nervous when an election is fastly approaching and the #1 movie in the country is a documentary (of all things!) completely bashing you. In a summer filled with surprises - mostly bad - this weekend saw the biggest of all: the first documentary ever to be at #1. Like The Passion of the Christ earlier this year, Michael Moore's acclaimed Palm D'Or winner took advantage of a niche audience, leading to long lines at the less than 900 theatres it played at. Now, everyone makes a big deal about per screen averages (9/11's was around $25K) but I'm here to once and for all debunk them: they really don't mean anything. If Fahrenheit 9/11 had debuted in more than 3500 theatres, the most it would have made would be $35M. Some people seem to have this notion that the PSA (per screen average) would be the same no matter what. No. For instance, in Lost In Translation's first week, it garnered about $40K PSA playing only in a few markets. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind debuted in about 1200 theatres, with just as good if not better reviews than Lost and just as much anticipation, but its PSA was circa $6K. People, PSA's don't mean that much. They just mean that the theatres that were playing it were busy. That is it. Good for them. Anywho, The Notebook debuted strongly and could hang around because of positive word of mouth. Two Brothers disappointed in 9th, while White Chicks scored with $26M in its 5-day, but should die fast in the coming weeks. Spider-Man 2 predictions will be up on Tuesday.
posted by Darren at 5:41 PM
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