78th Oscars Predictions

Why year in advance predictions? Because its fun. It helps me keep my mind occupied during the doldrums of the post Oscar months. Actually, there are several films being released in the next few weeks I'm looking forward to seeing. Sin City and The Ring Two were on my top 10 most anticipated for the year making them top priority. In addition, I'm looking forward to Danny Boyle's Millions, Woody Allen's Melinda and Melinda and The Upside of Anger which is currently garnering great reviews for Joan Allen. The Interpreter opens in late April, and despite mixed early word, I'm still anticipating it for obvious reasons. On to the predictions and commentary...

Last year, I didn't make any official predictions and I regreted it. I do remember however having rough drafts with following predictions turning out to be correct:
Picture - Aviator & Finding Neverland
Actor - Dicaprio & Depp
Actress - Winslet & Bening
Supp. Actor - Owen & Freeman (but for An Unfinished Life)
Supp. Actress - Blanchett & Portman
Director - Scorsese
Screenplay - Eternal Sunshine
Typically, you get about 1 per category correct.

I'm leaving off the Untitled Steven Spielberg-Munich Project/Vengeance film. This is scheduled to begin production within days of War of the Worlds release, and the release date is currently late December. I have a strong feeling it will be bumped to 2006. Also missing from the below predictions are the dueling Truman Capote projects: Capote and Every Word is True. Capote stars Phillip Seymour Hoffman as Capote and Catherine Keener as Harper Lee. I originally had them in predictions, but took both out. This seems to be the smaller of the two and could easily be out one minute and forgotten the next. Every Word Is True began filming in February and is penciled in for a November release. I think the chance of it making this year is 50-50. If either of these films is strong enough to play a part in this year's Oscar race, it will be EWIT. Have you seen the IMDB cast listing for this baby? Sandra Bullock (as Harper), Toby Jones (as Capote), Kevin Kline, Alan Cumming, Meg Ryan, Hope Davis, Anjelica Huston, Jeff Daniels, Isabella Rossellini, Daniel Craig, Ashley Judd and Sigourney Weaver. Yeah, I don't think that's all accurate. Gwyneth Paltrow will also appear in a small cameo - though she'll get paid more than almost everyone else in the cast - as singer Peggy Lee singing "This Thing Called Love." Directed by Douglas McGrath (Emma, Nicholas Nickleby), the cinematography is by the same guy who was the D.P. on Amelie and A Very Long Engagement. Even if the film sucks, it'll be visually stunning. I'm not jumping on it just yet.

Speaking of Miss Paltrow, I've left off Proof as well as Miramax's other potential contender An Unfinished Life. The studio will be finished by the time of next year's Oscars. Even if decent films, they won't get the push they probably deserve. Buzz on both, though, is mixed at best.

Next up: Untitled Niki Caro Project formerly known as Class Action. Charlize Theron stars in this fictionalized account of the first sexual harassment lawsuit, set in a small mining community in the midwest. Sissy Spacek, Frances McDormand, Sean Bean and Woody Harrelson. The film also has a two-time Oscar winning cinematographer. Production began a week before this year's Oscar ceremony and the film is scheduled for release October 7. I think it will make it. This film should join the ranks of film's like Silkwood, Norma Rae and Erin Brockovich and get several nominations, but due to tough competition and potential delays, I only have it on for one category.

I don't have many awards going to the two big epics of the year: Kingdom of Heaven and The New World. Both will be visually stunning, no doubt. But there's so many big films in competition that it will either be one or none. I've left them both out. Word on Kingdom of Heaven is great, so I'd give that the edge. But can another Scott epic get in so close to Gladiator? Perhaps...

There's typically one film that comes out of nowhere to become a Best Picture nominee: Lost In Translation, Sideways, The Full Monty. This explains why you can only really be confident in (at most) 4 of your 5 predictions. I'm not going to bother picking the surprise. The battle for the "light" studio Best Picture nomination is between Elizabethtown and In Her Shoes. Both are dramadies, should have box office clout, and have strong casts featuring never nominated up and comers as well as at least two Oscar veterans. Elizabethtown has a great script, while Shoes has great test screening reactions. Scroll down to see who I gave it to.

Rent Vs. The Producers? Neither. I don't see either of these factoring in, but there is buzz on Uma Thurman (as Ula in Producers) for a supporting actress nomination slash makeup award for that whole "sorry for no Kill Bill noms."

Finally, the two films that make this year's Oscar race exciting: Memoirs of a Geisha and Brokeback Mountain. These are originals as far as potential is concerned. With the ironic exception of Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, there really hasn't been many eastern influenced films to be noticed. In fact, can you even name an Asian actor who has an Oscar? Brokeback Mountain could be the first gay love story to play against the big boys (in a nonsexual way, mind you) for Oscar glory. Oh, and how perfect is this: Memoirs is from a gay, white director, featuring actors playing Japanese characters, and hardly anyone associated with the film is Japanese. Brokeback is from a straight, Taiwanese director, featuring actors playing gay characters, and no one invovled is gay. This will affect Geisha more than Brokeback. Both films should be successful with their niche audiences.


This is all in fun. Enjoy!

Art Direction:
Ask the Dust
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Cinderella Man
Kong: The 8th World Wonder
Memoirs of a Geisha

Cinematography:
Brokeback Mountain - Rodrigo Pietro
Jarhead - Roger Deakins
Kingdom of Heaven - John Mathieson
Memoirs of a Geisha - Dion Beebe
The New World - Emmanuel Lubezki

Costume Design:
The Brothers Grimm
The Chronicles of Narnia
Kong: The 8th World Wonder
Marie Antoinette
Memoirs of a Geisha

Editing:
Cinderella Man - Daniel P. Hanley & Mike Hill
Jarhead - Walter Murch
Kingdom of Heaven - Dody Dorn
Memoirs of a Geisha - Pietro Scalia
Syriana - Tom Squyres

Makeup:
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Kong: The 8th World Wonder
Marie Antoinette

Score:
Brokeback Mountain - Gustavo Santaolalla
Cinderella Man - Thomas Newman
The Corpse Bride - Danny Elfman
Memoirs of a Geisha - John Williams
The New World - James Horner

Sound Mixing:
Batman Begins
Kingdom of Heaven
Kong: The 8th World Wonder
Star Wars: Episode 3
War of the Worlds

Sound Editing:
Batman Begins
Kong: The 8th World Wonder
War of the Worlds

Visual Effects:
Kong: The 8th World Wonder
Star Wars: Episode 3
War of the Worlds

Animated Feature:
The Corpse Bride
Madagascar
Wallace and Grommit: The Curse of the Were Rabbit

Predicted winners in bold. Yes, my balls are that big.

Original Screenplay:
Cinderella Man - Cliff Hollingsworth, C. Gaby Mitchell, Akiva Goldsman
Elizabethtown - Cameron Crowe
Melinda and Melinda - Woody Allen
Prime - Ben Younger
Walk the Line - Gill Dennis & James Mangold

Okay, there's almost no original screenplays for the major players. Expect this to be indie and foreign film dominated and full of surprises. I went with the safe ones for now.

Adapted Screenplay:
All the King's Men - Steven Zallian
Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana
Jarhead - William Broyles, Jr.
Memoirs of a Geisha - Ron Bass & Akiva Goldsman & Robin Swicord & Doug Wright
Syriana - Stephen Gaghan

Everything seems to be adapted this year. This is going to be one of the most competitive years for this category. Smaller adapted screenplays like Art School Confidential will probably get lost in the mix.

Actor:
Orlando Bloom - Elizabethtown (or Kingdom of Heaven)
George Clooney - Syriana
Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
Sean Penn - All the King's Men

Clooney gained 30lbs. Orlando Bloom - Oscar nominee? Well, Cameron and Kirsten say he's great. No reason not to believe them, not like they murdered your children or anything. He is professionally trained at some prestigious London school. The rest are past nominees. Alternate: Heath Ledger in Brokeback. This is really, REALLY great role. He drives the film and will have a great emotional moment at the end which is what could sell this film to the heterosexual audience. He has kind of a shakey resume, but the role is very similar to his work in Monster's Ball. I also think previous nominee Ralph (pronounce Rafe, don't ya know?) Fiennes could get in for The Constant Gardener. If he does, I'd expect Rachel Weisz to appear in the supporting actress category. I think we're looking at a second year where someone wins for playing a music legend. Johnny Cash wanted Joaquin for the part. True story. Plus, someone almost always wins for playing a real person.

Supporting Actor:
Michael Caine - The Weather Man
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain (or Jarhead or Proof)
Peter Sarsgaard - Jarhead
Ken Watanabe - Memoirs of a Geisha

I think Gyllenhaal is lead in Jarhead. He might be considered lead for Brokeback, but the story very much belongs to Heath Ledger's character. Its sort of a Murray-Johansson thing. Focus, like they did with her, will put Jake where he'll most likely score a nomination. With Proof seeming to be out, its here. Giamatti gets the "sorry we didn't nominated you twice before" nomination. Ditto for Sarsgaard. Who, oh who, will Maggie root for? One of the guys from All the King's Men (Anthony Hopkins, Jude Law, Mark Ruffalo) or Jarhead (Jamie Foxx, Chris Cooper, Sam Rockwell) could sneak in as could Matt Damon from Syriana. So rudely snubbed for Mr. Ripley as his hilarious work in Ocean's Twelve.

Supporting Actress:
Patricia Clarkson - All the King's Men
Toni Collette - In Her Shoes
Gong Li - Memoirs of a Geisha
Frances McDormand - Untitled Niki Caro Project
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain

Hey, an In Living Color cast member getting two nominations in one year? Lull from Wings? That B-movie bombshell from Candyman? Why not nom that slut from Dawson's Creek? Perfect. This year, it seems all the supporting actress nominees have to compete for a nom with their own costars. Williams has Anne Hathway, in a very similar role: the sweet wife who grows bitter upon knowing that she isn't her husband's true love. McDormand, playing Theron's best friend, goes up against Sissy Spacek, who plays Charlize's mother. As for Geisha, Michelle Yeoh could also sneak in her, but I'll lean towards Gong. Clarkson also has Kate Winslet - also a potential nominee for her sultry role in Romance and Cigarettes - in All to compete with, but Patty's role is said to be juicier. Collette could easily go lead, and her costar Shirley MacClaine (who also has Rumor Has It and Bewitched out this year) could get in. Shirley is this year's big comeback. Sandra Bullock is probably the alternate for both her respective roles: Crash and Every Word Is True. Sorry, Zellweger. I think they're sick of you. Dakota Fanning will take on her most challenging role to date: an actual child in War of the Worlds. Sounds like this year's deglam nomination! I'd love nothing more for Judy Greer to appear here for her work as Bloom's sister in E-Town. Maybe even Susan Sarandon, too. But not Jessica Biel. Or Jessica Alba. She isn't even in that film, but whatever....

Actress:
Juliette Binoche - Bee Season
Cameron Diaz - In Her Shoes
Kirsten Dunst - Marie Antoinette (or Elizabethtown)
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
Ziyi Zhang - Memoirs of a Geisha

Holy babefest! Really, one of these is getting knocked out for a respected veteran, possibly Helen Hunt for A Good Woman. You know you've got a problem when Hunt is considered the respected veteran of the lot. Its just many of this year's films seem to feature predominantly younger casts. What's the average age for this list? 27? 28? Guess what! No weight gain, no makeup, no bad wigs for these ladies. They are keeping it real! Dunst's role in E-town and Witherspoon could go supporting. I'm hoping Diaz is the lock here. She really, REALLY deserves an Oscar nomination. Everyone who works with her LOVES her and everyone who doesn't know her HATES her. What's with that? If you look at all the other awards she has been nominated for (BAFTA, SAG, Globe), it seems odd that an Oscar isn't included. Downright mysterious. I suspect there may be outside forces at work. This year feels like deja vu for Witherspoon. Last year she seemed to have a perfect role for Oscar in Vanity Fair. This year, she goes with what she knows. She's a sweet Southern gal playing just that. Plus, she, along with Joaquin, will sing. I have a feeling Walk the Line will be more What's Love Got To Do With It than Ray. Ziyi was very good in Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and fantastic in House of Flying Daggers. This is a perfect role for her. As for Binoche, well, the role sounds like one you would have seen in Naked Gun 33 1/3. Remember the scene at the Oscars when they announced the Best Actress nominees? One was about a woman surviving anorexia after the death of her cat. Binoche plays a desperate housewife whose husband (Richard Gere) becomes obsessed with her daughter's chances in spelling bees. Rumor Has It Jennifer Aniston could be a contender, but Radha Mitchell (Melinda and Melinda) and Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger and June's Yes) will probably be forgotten, while Uma Thurman and Meryl Streep could be the Prime alternates here.

Director:
Steven Zallian - All the King's Men
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
Cameron Crowe - Elizabethtown
Sam Mendes - Jarhead
Rob Marshall - Memoirs of a Geisha

Don't really know what to say here. This seems like a really boring batch. Perhaps Malick or Scott could make things interesting for their respective films. And why not give Sofia another go round if she makes Marie Antoinette something really special.

Picture:
All the King's Men
Cinderella Man
Elizabethtown
Jarhead
Memoirs of a Geisha

No director nomination for Howard, I don't think they like him that much. I think Brokeback Mountain is probably going to get in, but I feel that would be too much wishful thinking. I started out thinking to myself: "Okay, self (cause that's what I call me), if the movie plays at Cannes, its a big contender." The movie will debut at Cannes. "Okay, self, if Focus bumps it back to December, its in." Focus bumped the release to December 9th. Now I don't know what to think. Alternates: any of the films nominated above.

Good god, that was a lot of work. But fun. Remember, being a good film only gets you about 65% of the way toward an Oscar. Have a great 2005, now that we have good movies opening.