OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS!!!!

Here goes....

(The percentages are based on what I think the chances are of winning. The closer the numbers, the tighter the competition.)

BEST PICTURE:
1. The Departed - 25%
2. Little Miss Sunshine - 24%
3. Babel - 22%
4. The Queen - 19%
5. Letters From Iwo Jima - 10%

The Departed won the DGA and the BFCA Best Picture. But if they really loved the film, wouldn't it have also gotten easy nominations for Jack and Leo? Little Miss Sunshine has the most precursors: WGA, SAG & PGA - which would normally equal a victory. But it does not have a director or editing nom, two very important things to getting Best Picture. Driving Miss Daisy is the last film to win Best Picture with no director nod. Ordinary People is the last to win without an editing nom. And let's face it: if Brokeback couldn't win without an editing nomination, will Sunshine do it? (I may have just jinxed myself.) Only two Pic nominees have editing nominations: Departed and Babel. Babel seems very popular in the industry, but along with the Iwo Jima, has horrible box office. The Queen has the BAFTA and Dame Mirren, but some see it as nothing more than a glossy TV movie (to which I say FUCK THEM!) So, in the end, I think they'll finally give Marty an Oscar, and the film. But watch out, 3 films are riding behind, and close.


BEST DIRECTING:
1. Martin Scorsese - 45%
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - 20%
3. Stephen Frears - 13%
4. Clint Eastwood - 12%
5. Paul Greengrass - 10%

I'd say Marty has this locked up, but they seem to not like him much. Then again, he's won every major Best Director prize (except BAFTA, of which he already has a few). Let's just say Eastwood getting another award would probably lead to an equally large backlash as last year's Crashlash.


BEST ACTOR:
1. Forest Whitaker - 34%
2. Peter O'Toole - 31%
3. Leonardo Dicaprio - 18%
4. Ryan Gosling - 12%
5. Will Smith - 5%

Nuff said.

BEST ACTRESS:
1. Helen Mirren - 55%
2. Meryl Streep - 17%
3. Judi Dench - 15%
4. Penelope Cruz - 8%
5. Kate Winslet - 4%

Just declare her the actual queen and get it over with. Mirren, next to Scorsese, will be the night's most deserving winner.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Alan Arkin - 30%
2. Eddie Murphy - 29%
3. Jackie Earle Haley - 20%
4. Mark Wahlberg - 19%
5. Djimon Hounsou - 2%

So this is fucked. This has been one of the first categories in the past couple of years, so if Wahlberg does win, I'd say Departed clean sweeps. Arkin winning could be a great sign for Sunshine, but Murphy winning would probably kill its chances. I went with Alan because he's a vet, Eddie has pissed off a lot of people, and it's very hard for a non-Picture nominee to win both supporting categories.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Jennifer Hudson - 40%
2. Abigail Breslin - 17%
3. Rinko Kikuchi - 16%
4. Cate Blanchett - 14%
5. Adriana Barraza - 13%

Breslin or one of the Babel ladies winning would equal a Best Picture win for their film. Hudson still has the edge. This is a shit category by the way.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
1. Little Miss Sunshine - 30%
2. Babel - 28%
3. The Queen - 26%
4. Pan's Labyrinth - 10%
5. Letters From Iwo Jima - 6%

Popularity over quality will lead to Sunshine winning here. Babel could make it in because of those people who think it is important.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
1. The Departed - 45%
2. Borat - 16%
3. Notes on a Scandal - 15%
4. Children of Men - 14%
5. Little Children - 10%

This should be an easy victory for The Departed. I gave Borat runner up status because I get the feeling they love Sacha more than we think. That Globe speech was dynamite.

The rest:
ART DIRECTION: Pan's Labyrinth

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Children of Men

COSTUME DESIGN: Marie Antoinette
(Though I'm not betting against Curse of the Golden Flower)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: An Inconvenient Truth

FILM EDITING: The Departed
(If Babel does win, it wins Best Picture.)

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Pan's Labyrinth

MAKEUP: Pan's Labyrinth

ORIGINAL SCORE: The Queen (another tough category)

ORIGINAL SONG: Another toughie - could the Dreamgirls songs cancel each out. Perhaps. The Melissa Etheridge song is one of her worst, but in an important film, but I'll go with Randy Newman's Cars song pulling a surprise victory.

SOUND EDITING: Hmm...umm...Letters From Iwo Jima?

SOUND MIXING: Dreamgirls

VISUAL EFFECTS: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest