FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

The big announcement comes Tuesday morning at 8:30AM Eastern time. My favorite morning of the year. Given the SAGs are on Sunday and I have to announce the DKME Awards and Top Films of 2005 sometime before then, I'll just get these out of the way now. It seems in each category, there are 3 or 4 shoe-ins, then one space that is up for grabs from just about anyone. I come up with 4, then draw a blank on the last slot.

BEST DIRECTOR:
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
Paul Haggis - Crash
George Clooney - Good Night and Good Luck
David Cronenberg - A History of Violence
Steven Spielberg - Munich
(alt: Bennett Miller - Capote)
Potential Surprise - Fernando Merielles

BEST ACTOR:
Ralph Fiennes - The Constant Gardener
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
David Strathairn - Good Night and Good Luck
(alt: Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man)
Potential Surprise - Terrence Howard or Jeff Daniels

BEST ACTRESS:
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Keira Knightley - Pride and Prejudice
Charlize Theron - North Country
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
(alt: Joan Allen - The Upside of Anger)
Potential Surprise: Bello goes lead, along with Laura Linney. Ziyi strikes back.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
George Clooney - Syriana
Matt Dillon - Crash
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
Terrence Howard - Crash
(alt: William Hurt - A History of Violence)
Potential Surprise: Clifton Collins, Jr. Bob Hoskins or Don Cheadle strike back.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams - Junebug
Maria Bello - A History of Violence
Catherine Keener - Capote
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
(alt: Frances McDormand - North Country)
Potential Surprise: Original predicted winner Scarlett Johansson makes it in after all.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Cinderella Man - Crash - Good Night and Good Luck - Match Point - The Squid and the Whale
(alt: The 40 Year Old Virgin)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Brokeback Mountain - Capote - The Constant Gardener - A History of Violence - Munich
(alt: Walk the Line)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Chicken Little - Tim Burton's Corpse Bride - Wallace and Gromit

BEST ART DIRECTION:
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - Chronicles of Narnia - Good Night and Good Luck - King Kong - Memoirs of a Geisha

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Batman Begins - Brokeback Mountain - Good Night and Good Luck - King Kong - Memoirs of a Geisha

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
King Kong - Memoirs of a Geisha - Mrs. Henderson Presents - Pride and Prejudice - Walk the Line

BEST FILM EDITING:
Brokeback Mountain - Crash - Good Night and Good Luck - King Kong - Walk the Line

BEST MAKEUP:
Chronicles of Narnia - Cinderella Man - The New World

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Batman Begins - Brokeback Mountain - Cinderella Man - Memoirs of a Geisha - The New World

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Tim Burton's Corpse Bride - "Remains of the Day"
Crash - "In the Deep"
Hustle and Flow - "Hustle and Flow"
The Producers - "There's Nothing Like a Show on Broadway"
Transamerica - "Travelin' Thru"

BEST SOUND:
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - King Kong - Star Wars: Ep. 3 - Walk the Line - War of the Worlds

BEST SOUND EDITING:
Batman Begins - Star Wars: Ep. 3 - War of the Worlds

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
King Kong - Star Wars: Ep. 3 - War of the Worlds


AND....

BEST PICTURE:


Munich doesn't seem to have much support. Walk the Line has a last minute surge that will kick it in. Watch out for The Constant Gardener

TALLY:
Brokeback Mountain - 9
Crash - 7
Good Night and Good Luck - 7
Walk the Line - 6
King Kong - 5
Capote - 4
Cinderella Man - 4
Memoirs of a Geisha - 4
Batman Begins - 3
The Constant Gardener - 3
A History of Violence - 3
Star Wars: Ep 3 - 3
War of the Worlds - 3
Tim Burton's Corpse Bride - 2
Mrs. Henderson Presents - 2
Munich - 2
The New World - 2
Pride and Prejudice - 2
Transamerica - 2
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - 1
Chicken Little - 1
Chronicles of Narnia - 2
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - 1
Hustle and Flow - 1
Junebug - 1
Match Point - 1
North Country - 1
The Producers - 1
The Squid and the Whale - 1
Syriana - 1
Wallace and Gromit - 1